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Rapid climatic variability in the west Mediterranean during the last 25 000 years from high resolution pollen data
climatic variability High-temporal resolution pollen west Mediterranean
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2009/12/3
High-temporal resolution pollen record from the Alboran Sea ODP Site 976, pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction and biomisation show that changes of Mediterranean vegetation have been clear...
Mechanisms and time scales of glacial inception simulated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity
Mechanisms Milankovitch forcing time scales
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2009/12/3
We investigate glacial inception and glacial thresholds in the climate-cryosphere system utilising the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2, which includes modules for atmosphere, t...
Late Quaternary vegetation-climate feedbacks
vegetation-climate feedbacks climate dynamics climate system
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2009/12/3
Feedbacks between vegetation and other components of the climate system are discussed with respect to their influence on climate dynamics during the late Quaternary, i.e., the last glacial-interglacia...
Impacts of land surface properties and atmospheric CO2 on the Last Glacial Maximum climate：a factor separation analysis
land surface properties atmospheric CO2 Last Glacial Maximum climate
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2009/12/3
Many sensitivity studies have been carried out, using climate models of different degrees of complexity to test the climate response to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. Here, instead of addin...
Two millennia of climate variability in the Central Mediterranean
climate variability Central Mediterranean
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2009/12/3
This experimental work addresses the need for high-resolution, long and homogeneous climatic time series that facilitate the study of climate variability over time scales of decades to millennia. We p...
Three exceptionally strong East-Asian summer monsoon events during glacial times in the past 470 kyr
Chinese loess East Asian monsoon
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2009/12/3
Chinese loess sequences are interpreted as a reliable record of the past variation of the East Asian monsoon regime through the alternation of loess and paleosols units, dominated by the winter and su...
Evidence of structured Brownian dynamics from temperature time series analysis
structured Brownian dynamics temperature time series analysis
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2009/11/13
An analysis of time series of monthly mean temperatures ranging from 1895 to 1989 is performed through application of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to data of several places in the USA. A common dy...
Dynamical implications of prescribing part of a coupled system:Results from a low-order model
Dynamical implications prescribing part coupled system low-order model
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2009/11/13
It is a common procedure in climate modelling to specify dynamical system components from an external source; a prominent example is the forcing of an atmospheric model with observed sea surface tempe...
Breakdown coefficients and scaling properties of rain fields
Breakdown coefficients scaling properties rain fields
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2009/11/13
The theory of scale similarity and breakdown coefficients is applied here to intermittent rainfall data consisting of time series and spatial rain fields. The probability distributions (pdf) of the lo...
结合青藏高原东部3″DEM和102个气象站46年(1961—2006)5—9月的降水资料,根据降水随高度分布,将站点分为三类,采用多元回归的方法,建立逐年雨季降水量估算模型,并估算和分析了46 a的雨季凝结潜热。结果表明:降水量估算模型的相关性显著,基本都通过005的信度检验值069、082、090;高原东部雨季凝结潜热分布极不均匀,表现为东南多西北少的特征,凝结潜热总量变化在181×1...
西藏终碛湖溃决形式研究
西藏 终碛湖 溃决形式
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2009/11/12
西藏终碛湖众多,一旦发生溃决,将造成巨大损失。冰湖溃决机制的研究对冰湖溃决预测和溃后灾害评估是十分必要的。将冰湖终碛堤视为天然堆石坝,用水力学和土力学理论研究冰湖溃决的力学机制。重点研究溢流型溃决形式和管涌型溃决形式,根据野外观测数据和前人的研究,发现溢流型溃决的溃口多呈梯形或圆弧状形,对比真实数据发现溃口顶宽与坝高的关系,并且所有冰川终碛堤都表现为局部溃决。通过实地考察、取样分析,判断光谢措终碛...
Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble
Skill prediction local weather forecasts ECMWF ensemble
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2009/11/12
Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected foreca...
Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems
intense precipitation forecasts single models ensemble prediction systems
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2009/11/12
The performance of single models and ensemble prediction systems has been investigated with respect to quantitative precipitation forecasts. Evaluation is based on the potential economic value of + 72...
Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system:two flood cases
ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system flood cases
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2009/11/12
The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood...
Using adjoint sensitivity as a local structure function in variational data assimilation
adjoint sensitivity local structure function variational data assimilation
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2009/11/12
One approach recently proposed in order to improve the forecast of weather events, such as cyclogenesis, is to increase the number of observations in areas depending on the flow configuration. These a...