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lectoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections
lectoral Surprise the Midterm Loss US Congressional Elections
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2015/6/5
Alberto Alesina and Howard Rosenthal argue that surprise about the outcomes of US presidential elections accounts for two important features of the American political economy: the regular loss of vote...
All that glitters:betting markets and the 2013 Australian Federal Election
All that glitters betting markets the 2013 Australian Federal Election
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2015/6/4
Political betting markets featured prominently in pre-election prognostication, perhaps more so ahead of the 2013 election than for any other recent Australian election. Major newspapers such as The A...
How Does Obama Match-Up?Counterfactuals & the Role of Obama’s Race in 2008
Obama Match-Up Counterfactuals Obama’s Race in 2008
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2015/6/4
Would the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election have been different if Barack Obama had not been the Democratic nominee? In this paper we analyze 33 head-to-head matchups, some real and some ...
Can the Web “Work” for Public-Use Surveys of Mass Publics?
Web Work Public-Use Surveys Mass Publics
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2015/6/4
Can the Web “Work” for Public-Use Surveys of Mass Publics?
Primary Politics:Race,Gender,and Age in the 2008 Democratic Primary
Race Gender Age the 2008 Democratic Primary
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2015/6/4
Despite Barack Obama’s momentum in the early phase of the Democratic nomination, the process of selecting a nominee took longer than usual. Obama’s momentum, it seems, got stuck, and the 2008 Democrat...
The Greens performed relatively well in the 2010 election, winning 11.8% of 1st preferences and--- for the first time at a general election --- one seat in the House of Representatives (Melbourne). Th...
On measuring democracy and things like that.
Primary Politics:The Effects of Gender,Age,&Race in the 2008 Democratic Primary
Gender Age Race the 2008 Democratic Primary
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2015/6/4
Despite Barack Obama’s momentum in the early phase of the democratic nomination, the process of selecting a nominee took longer than usual. Eight candidates were winnowed to two, but the remaining two...
“THE MOST LIBERAL SENATOR” 2008 EDITION.
Cosmopolitanism
Cosmopolitanism
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2015/6/4
Born to a black father from Kenya and a white mother from Kansas, Barack Hussein Obama was raised at various times in Honolulu and Jakarta by his mother, his father, an Indonesian stepfather, and his ...
Measuring District Level Partisanship with Implications for the Analysis of U.S. Elections
Measuring District Level Partisanship U.S. Elections
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2015/6/4
Many empirical studies of American politics, particularly legislative politics, are vitally dependent on measures of the partisanship of a district. We develop a measurement model for this quantity, e...
“Extreme” Roll Call Analysis.
Informal Voting in the 2004 Australian Election:a brief look at the aggregate data
Informal Voting the 2004 Australian Election aggregate data
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2015/6/4
In this brief note I document several interesting features of informal voting in the 2004 Australian election for the House of Representatives:1. As the number of candidates on the ballot paper increa...
Howard, Bush and Mandates: the 2004 U.S. and Australian Elections Compared
Howard Bush Mandates the 2004 U.S. Australian Elections Compared
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2015/6/4
There are many superficial similarities between the elections held last year in Australia and the United States. The two elections were held within a month of each other. The incumbent prime minister ...