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Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Africa AIDS/HIV Bayesian melding Cohort Component Model of Population Projection estimation forecast IMIS incidence prevalence Tanzania Uganda
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2014/11/21
Background: Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other im...
Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005-2050
Poland predictive distributions stochastic forecast uncertainty
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2008/12/16
Forecasting the population of Poland is very challenging. Firstly, the country has been undergoing rapid demographic changes. In the 1990s, they were influenced by the political, economic, and social ...